Backing winners is only half the job in racing. The other half is getting a fair price. Here is how The Furlong Fellas think about value, and why we are happy to leave a short-priced favourite alone.
The most likely winner isn't always the best bet
Value is about comparing a horse's real chance of winning with the price on offer. A favourite at 6/4 might win often, but if its true chance is lower than that price suggests, backing it every time will lose money in the long run.
Every price in the market is an opinion about how likely a horse is to win. When our own assessment says a horse is better than the odds suggest, that is value. When the price is shorter than the horse's true chance, it is a bet we walk away from, however obvious the selection looks.
How we think about value
- Price our own odds: we form a view of each horse's chance before looking at the market.
- Compare with the market: we only bet when the available price is bigger than our assessment.
- Track SP and BSP: beating the starting price over time is a good sign we are finding value.
“We are not simply looking for the most likely winner. We are looking for horses whose odds are bigger than their realistic chance.”
Patience pays
Value betting means accepting losing runs and trusting the process over hundreds of bets rather than a handful. A horse we make a 6/1 chance that is available at 10/1 will still lose most of the time, but over the long run those are the prices that keep a record healthy. We keep honest records of every selection so you can judge the results for yourself.
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.